Two Programs, One Common Theme

The women check in at No. 25 nationally. The men are outside the Top 25 as they prepare for their first season under Justin Gainey.

But I wanted to look at these rankings a little differently.

For the women, I went back through the AP poll history to see how often NC State has actually exceeded preseason expectations.

For the men, I wanted to look at the statistical profile of last year's team and what Gainey's incoming players could bring to the program.

And the more I looked into it, the more I kept coming back to one thing.

Defense.

It's something I've talked about quite a bit when evaluating this year's women's roster, especially with NC State being a little undersized in certain areas.

And interestingly enough, it's also a major part of what Gainey wants to establish with the men.

When NC State's women were ranked No. 25 in the preseason AP poll, I thought it was a fair starting point.

But there's something interesting about this program's history.

Over the last ten completed seasons, beginning in 2016–17, NC State has finished higher than its preseason AP standing seven times.

Three of those seasons began outside the Top 25 and ended inside it.

And from 2018–19 through 2021–22, the Wolfpack improved its national standing in four consecutive seasons.

Preseason versus final AP ranking, 2016–17 through 2025–26

Look at that stretch.

In 2018–19, NC State started at No. 17 and finished No. 10.

The following year, the Wolfpack went from No. 14 to No. 8.

Then came back-to-back seasons finishing No. 3 nationally after starting at No. 8 and No. 5, respectively.

Those are meaningful jumps.

And I think they say something about the consistency this program has shown in developing throughout a season.

Now, that doesn't mean every NC State team is going to exceed expectations. There have been seasons when the Wolfpack started highly ranked and didn't finish there.

But historically, the preseason AP poll hasn't always captured what NC State ultimately becomes.

And that's what makes this year's No. 25 ranking interesting.

I don't think the biggest question surrounding NC State is whether it has talented players.

We've already seen what Zoe Brooks and Khamil Pierre can bring to the floor.

The question, for me, is how consistently this team can defend as a unit.

NC State is a little undersized in certain areas, but that doesn't automatically mean it can't be effective defensively.

It just means the details become even more important.

How well does the Wolfpack communicate through screens? How quickly can it rotate when the ball gets into the paint? Can it keep opponents off the offensive glass when it gives up size?

And can it create enough defensive pressure to make teams uncomfortable before they even get into their offense?

Those are the things I'll be paying attention to.

Because when you're undersized, you can't afford to consistently give up easy paint touches and second-chance opportunities.

You have to make teams work.

Last season, NC State held opponents to 39.3% shooting and finished with a positive rebounding margin of 6.1 rebounds per game.

Those are useful benchmarks.

But with a different roster, the Wolfpack will have to establish its own defensive identity.

And if this team wants to climb the rankings the way previous NC State teams have, I think that identity is going to be a major part of the conversation.

Now, let's turn to the men.

NC State enters a new era under Justin Gainey, and I think there's an interesting statistical story developing around what he wants this program to become.

At ACC Tipoff, Gainey discussed the identity he wanted to establish when he took over the job.

His priorities were pretty straightforward.

Defend. Rebound. Take care of the basketball.

And when you look at last season's numbers, you can understand why those areas are important.

NC State averaged 83.2 points per game, shot 38.8% from three, and committed just 9.2 turnovers per contest.

Offensively, there were some things the Wolfpack did really well.

But NC State also allowed opponents to shoot 44.7% from the field and finished with a negative rebounding margin.

The Wolfpack was outrebounded by 44 rebounds across the season.

So when I look at Gainey's roster construction, I'm not just interested in how many points his incoming players averaged at their previous schools.

I'm interested in what they can help change.

And one addition immediately stands out.

Kyle Evans might not be the first name that comes to mind when discussing NC State's incoming transfers, but his defensive production at UC Irvine deserves a closer look.

Most fans may already know that Evans led the entire NCAA in blocked shots last season. That's impressive enough on its own.

But I think the numbers become even more interesting when you put them into perspective.

Last season, Evans recorded 115 blocked shots.

NC State's entire men's basketball team recorded 116.

Yes, you read that correctly.

One player finished with just one fewer blocked shot than NC State's entire roster.

That's a pretty remarkable comparison.

And when you consider what Gainey has emphasized about the identity he wants to build, it becomes even more interesting.

Now, I don't expect Evans to automatically reproduce those numbers against ACC competition. The level of competition changes, his role changes, and how NC State defends as a team will matter.

But the production tells us something about the type of player Gainey has added.

Evans has demonstrated an ability to affect shots around the basket.

And when you have someone who can do that consistently, it can change how the rest of the defense operates.

Perimeter defenders may be able to apply more pressure knowing there's help behind them.

Opponents may have to think twice before attacking the paint.

And even when Evans doesn't record a block, his presence could influence the type of shots teams are willing to take.

That's the potential impact I'm interested in.

Evans started NC State's exhibition against Mississippi State but played just 11 minutes, finishing without a point, rebound, or blocked shot while picking up four fouls.

Obviously, that wasn't the type of statistical performance that jumps off the page.

But I also don't think one exhibition tells us everything about what Evans can bring to this team.

What stood out to me more was the bigger defensive picture.

Mississippi State collected 18 offensive rebounds, and Gainey pointed to rebounding as an area NC State needed to address.

And that brings us right back to the identity he's trying to establish.

It's one thing to force a difficult shot.

It's another to finish the possession.

A team can play great defense for 25 seconds, force a miss, and still give up two points because it couldn't secure the rebound.

That's where I think Evans' potential impact becomes important.

He averaged 8.7 rebounds per game at UC Irvine, in addition to his 3.3 blocked shots.

So while the blocks are the number that immediately catches your attention, his experience as a rebounder matters, too.

The challenge now is translating those individual strengths into consistent team defense.

And that isn't something one player can accomplish by himself.

It requires communication, discipline, and everyone buying into the same approach.

That's what makes this first season under Gainey interesting.

The numbers show what Evans has been capable of doing.

Now we'll get to see how those skills fit into the defensive identity Gainey wants to build.

At first glance, NC State's men's and women's basketball programs are entering this season with very different stories.

The women are trying to build on a history of climbing the national rankings.

The men are trying to establish a new identity under a new head coach.

But when I look at what could determine the ceiling for both teams, I keep coming back to the same area.

Defense.

For the women, I think their size and versatility will make communication, positioning, and rebounding especially important.

They have players who can create offense. But against the better teams on their schedule, they're going to have to find ways to defend consistently without giving up too much around the basket.

For the men, Gainey has made his priorities clear.

And the addition of a player like Evans gives NC State an intriguing piece to help establish that identity.

But there's a bigger point here.

Defense isn't just about steals and blocked shots.

It's about forcing teams into uncomfortable possessions, limiting second chances, and making opponents work for everything they get.

And sometimes, those are the advantages that separate teams more than another five or ten points per game.

That's why I think both programs are worth watching beyond where they begin in the AP poll.

The women have a history of outperforming preseason expectations.

The men have an opportunity to build something different.

And while the paths may not look the same, I think the question for both teams is pretty similar.

Can they turn their defensive potential into something they can rely on every night?

Because talent can get you into the conversation.

But if either NC State team wants to be better than its preseason expectations, I think defense is going to have a lot to say about it.